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Sunday, August 30, 2020

#444 One more time on questionable predictions


This is going back to the post of July 7, 2014 entitled “Predictions, predictions” in which I expressed my disdain with regard to misleading, misinforming, technically frivolous predictions regarding semiconductor engineering often meant to attract attention to a specific self-serving cause.


Not much has changed since then. The problem is of course not with technically sound, well founded in industrial/business reality, and overall, very needed forecasting. The problem is with predictions which can be found in some broadly disseminated semi-technical publications which are meant to grab our attention.  For instance, statement about “chemical computers replacing in about ten years traditional silicon microprocessors-based computers”, or about graphene replacing in the near future silicon in all electronic device applications. And how many times over the years we read about “insurmountable physical barriers”, “red-brick walls”, “limits of technology”, and “ends of the road” among others?


So, what’s the conclusion? Just don’t take for granted everything that you read about the future of semiconductor electronics and photonics and use common sense to see through the often grossly misleading proclamations.


Posted by Jerzy Ruzyllo at 09:26 PM | Semiconductors | Link is a personal blog of Jerzy Ruzyllo. He is Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Department of Electrical Engineering at Penn State University. With over forty years' experience in academic research and teaching in semiconductor engineering he has a unique perspective on the developments in this technical domain and enjoys blogging about it.

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With over 2000 terms defined and explained, Semiconductor Glossary is the most complete reference in the field of semiconductors on the market today.


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